by Mark Daoust
Posted on November 30, 2005
At the Punbcon conference in Las Vegas this past month, a representative from MSN Search stood in front of an audience full of web professionals and broadcasted an image on the overhead projection showing how MSN search is just as accurate in its results as Google for a handful of searches. His goal was not to try to claim search dominance, he gladly submitted that Google was a better search engine at this point in time. His point was clear, and it rang clear throughout the auditorium to those who were listening. In just a year and a half, MSN has developed a search that, although flawed, can claim a significant amount of relevancy when compared against the gold standard of search (which we all know to be Google).
The search engine wars are in full swing. About two years ago we saw hints of the search engine wars starting to heat up as both Yahoo and MSN chose to jettison themselves from Google's search results in favor of their own in-house solutions. Yahoo took an acquisition route gobbling up Inktomi and Overture to immediately compete with Google while MSN relied on its group of developers to develop a product that would match, if not exceed, that of Google's.
From what most would consider to be an insurmountable lead in the search environment, Google seems to have reacted with some concern. Initially Google responded to Yahoo's preparation for an attack on Google's search stronghold by releasing Gmail, a move obviously directed at both Hotmail and Yahoo Mail. In that time Google has released a plethora of products, more than they had released in their entire existence. Some of these products are:
Gmail
Google Maps
Local Search
Personal Search History
Google Analytics
Google RSS Reader
Google Blogsearch
Google Base
Google Calendar (in the near future)
Google Video
The search engine industry seems to be moving towards a convalescence. Yahoo and MSN are trying to become more like Google while Google is trying to become more like Yahoo and MSN. Google, however, is acting under the guise of their mission statement, which is to organize the world's information. Although academic in its feel, its timing seems to be oddly timed to coincide with the advances of competitors in the search market.
Recent Product Launches Have Been Problematic
The release of Google Analytics, although a great potentials service[/url], is symptomatic of the problems Google seems to be having these days. Unlike many of their other product launches, Google Analytics was launched without preparation for a heavy response from website owners.
After talking a few of the engineers at Google Analytics (formerly Urchin), I learned that Analytics was originally planned to update its stats on an hourly basis. For those website owners who signed up for Analytics at its inception, they were greeted with an initial wait of about 72 hours before the first statistics showed up. Even now, statistics update only once every day. Initially Google encouraged website owners to add all of their websites to Google analytics, but now they have placed a temporary hold on the addition of new sites.
This lack of preparation is unlike Google. Like Analytics, Google base has been met with problems from its initial launch. Although the product is just a few weeks old, Google base is already plagued with spammers using Google base as a place to put pornographic spam ads.
Google Sitemaps, at the admission of Google, had the potential from the beginning to be a colossal failure. Although there was a lot of buzz about Sitemaps when it was first released, the buzz has now subsided and been replaced with a sort of indifference at the technology now that website owners have discovered that they may be better off waiting for Googlebot to naturally discover their website. This may change, however, now that Google Sitemaps offers new diagnostic tools.
This is just a sampling of some of the unsuccessful releases Google has had in this past year. This does not look at the fact that Google appears to be gearing up for a Google Calendar program, a search on the human genome system, a free wifi service that is currently being tested in San Francisco, and Google Wallet, presumably a merchant account system somewhat similar to a PayPal or 2Checkout.
Getting Spread Too Thin
It seems as if Google response to the oncoming search engine competition from Yahoo and MSN was to become an expert in every facet of the Internet. No territory seemed to be out of their expertise. Granted, Google has proven itself to be extremely adept to organizing information and making that information easily searchable. Yet by launching so many new products, and seemingly not having the traditional mastery over these new products seems very unlike the Google that we have grown to know over the past several years.
One could easily make the argument that Google is simply spreading itself too thin. I once heard an ex-executive from McDonald's – one of the executives responsible for the most successful restaurant in the world, the Moscow McDonald's – explain that a business needs to stay true to its core competency. In this case, Google has become extremely good at providing search solutions. However, they have not proven themselves to be a trusted resource for statistics, hosting information, or a type of ISP (in regards to the free Wi-Fi service being tested).
Could it be Pride, the IPO, or the Competition?
One would have to ask why Google has given us this onslaught of new products and services that seem to be half-completed. Many authors claim that Google is simply too proud to think that they could not release a product that is not superior to any other product currently on the market. To an extent, they would be correct. Up until recently Google has had the ability to launch products and services that are unlike any other. Google Maps is a great example as the AP reports on how Mapquest is now looking for new territories in light of their competition. Google maps was a product that matched Google's core competency very well.
Others may want to claim that Google simply does not know what to do with the money received from their IPO. After all, why would a company spend so much time buying up so much dark fiber and trying to enter a relatively foreign market than what they are used to. With the money Google now has from the highly successful Adsense revenue and their current stock prices, why shouldn't Google throw out several products to see which ones are successful and which ones ultimately fail?
The most believable reason for Google's massive launch of new products, however, is that they are scared of the competition. Google is still a young company, remember. Although their stock is projected to break the $500 mark within the next 12 months, Google is still a very young company. With their youth, there is also a touch of immaturity and also hopefully a sense of realism about how fast the face of the Internet actually changes. When Google first entered the search market, Hotbot was actually rated as one of the top search engines on the Internet.
Watch Out for that Fatal Failure
The frustrations with Google are mounting. Sure, advertisers and publishers in the Google Adwords and Adsense systems have been frustrated with Google for some time now, but with the release of several apparently incomplete and certainly relatively unimpressive new products, Google runs the risk of becoming just another Yahoo or MSN. This is not intended as a slight to Yahoo or MSN as both have proven themselves to be very impressive companies. But any person who cannot recognize that Google has a distinct advantage with over 80% of the search market share certainly does not understand even the most basic principles of business.
Google must beware of mounting too many failed product releases. Frustrations with Google can already be seen in the blogosphere. Just do a search in Google for the term “Google is Lame”, or check out this musing of a VC in NYC on the very topic. This specific post was picked up by several other blogs and news outlets that in some ways agreed with the author that Google's latest releases have been nothing less than unimpressive.
Google needs to be careful. Although their stock is still sky-high, and although they still have a significant portion of the search market, continuing to launch products as they are is a simple recipe for disaster. Yahoo would be chastised for releasing a product that has as many problems as Google base or Google analytics. Imagine what would happen if your business were to have a set of product releases that simply did not do what you promised it would do – what would your customer response be?
Listen to the Point Made by MSN
During the presentation of the MSN representative at PubCon in Las Vegas, the representative made a point that struck me in a unique way. What is a more relevant search result: a result set that includes 10 million results, or a result set that includes one search result that matches what I am looking for? The answer is simple: I would rather have one search result that matches what I am looking for.
In reality, of course, having a set of options is nice, but the point is as valid as ever. While Google is spending their time release the next Google Whatever, MSN, Yahoo, and the other search engines are refining their engines to provide a higher relevancy in their search results. If Google continues to release mediocre products which really do not have a practical use for the average user, they will certainly lose the search engine wars in the long-run.
Users are already attached to the services that Yahoo provides and that MSN provides. Google can tear them away if they release a product that offers a significant improvement over the status quo, just as they did with Gmail and Google Maps. If, however, they fail to offer those significant improvements, users will have no real motivation to adopt the Google technology over what they are already familiar with. Meanwhile, MSN and Yahoo will be spending their efforts on perfecting their search results to offer a better search result than Google.
Google's Future – A Realistic Version
Does this mean you should set out to re-optimize your website for MSN and Yahoo anticipating the ultimate demise of Google? Absolutely not. What I have gone over in this article is a brief pattern that has developed over just the past few months from Google. Although the pattern is disturbing and could indicate a slight or upcoming shift in the search engine wars, it should not be taken as anything serious.
Google is still has an incredibly strong portion of the search engine market, and they will continue to have an incredibly strong hold on the market. The release of a few products that do not match the expectations of users is not necessarily indicative of the direction Google is heading, although it is a reason for concern for Google.
If things continue down the path that they are currently heading, Google will, at worst, reduce itself to be indistinguishable from MSN and Yahoo, and we, the consumers and website owners, will be left with three relatively equal search engines and their related products.
The result is ultimately the same for those of us who own and operate a website or several websites. We must optimize our sites with our users in mind first, and the search engines in mind second. The search engine wars will continue to rage for some time, and the fall of Google, no matter how much damage they may do through the release of unimpressive products, is still off in the distant future.
The search engine wars are in full swing. About two years ago we saw hints of the search engine wars starting to heat up as both Yahoo and MSN chose to jettison themselves from Google's search results in favor of their own in-house solutions. Yahoo took an acquisition route gobbling up Inktomi and Overture to immediately compete with Google while MSN relied on its group of developers to develop a product that would match, if not exceed, that of Google's.
From what most would consider to be an insurmountable lead in the search environment, Google seems to have reacted with some concern. Initially Google responded to Yahoo's preparation for an attack on Google's search stronghold by releasing Gmail, a move obviously directed at both Hotmail and Yahoo Mail. In that time Google has released a plethora of products, more than they had released in their entire existence. Some of these products are:
Gmail
Google Maps
Local Search
Personal Search History
Google Analytics
Google RSS Reader
Google Blogsearch
Google Base
Google Calendar (in the near future)
Google Video
The search engine industry seems to be moving towards a convalescence. Yahoo and MSN are trying to become more like Google while Google is trying to become more like Yahoo and MSN. Google, however, is acting under the guise of their mission statement, which is to organize the world's information. Although academic in its feel, its timing seems to be oddly timed to coincide with the advances of competitors in the search market.
Recent Product Launches Have Been Problematic
The release of Google Analytics, although a great potentials service[/url], is symptomatic of the problems Google seems to be having these days. Unlike many of their other product launches, Google Analytics was launched without preparation for a heavy response from website owners.
After talking a few of the engineers at Google Analytics (formerly Urchin), I learned that Analytics was originally planned to update its stats on an hourly basis. For those website owners who signed up for Analytics at its inception, they were greeted with an initial wait of about 72 hours before the first statistics showed up. Even now, statistics update only once every day. Initially Google encouraged website owners to add all of their websites to Google analytics, but now they have placed a temporary hold on the addition of new sites.
This lack of preparation is unlike Google. Like Analytics, Google base has been met with problems from its initial launch. Although the product is just a few weeks old, Google base is already plagued with spammers using Google base as a place to put pornographic spam ads.
Google Sitemaps, at the admission of Google, had the potential from the beginning to be a colossal failure. Although there was a lot of buzz about Sitemaps when it was first released, the buzz has now subsided and been replaced with a sort of indifference at the technology now that website owners have discovered that they may be better off waiting for Googlebot to naturally discover their website. This may change, however, now that Google Sitemaps offers new diagnostic tools.
This is just a sampling of some of the unsuccessful releases Google has had in this past year. This does not look at the fact that Google appears to be gearing up for a Google Calendar program, a search on the human genome system, a free wifi service that is currently being tested in San Francisco, and Google Wallet, presumably a merchant account system somewhat similar to a PayPal or 2Checkout.
Getting Spread Too Thin
It seems as if Google response to the oncoming search engine competition from Yahoo and MSN was to become an expert in every facet of the Internet. No territory seemed to be out of their expertise. Granted, Google has proven itself to be extremely adept to organizing information and making that information easily searchable. Yet by launching so many new products, and seemingly not having the traditional mastery over these new products seems very unlike the Google that we have grown to know over the past several years.
One could easily make the argument that Google is simply spreading itself too thin. I once heard an ex-executive from McDonald's – one of the executives responsible for the most successful restaurant in the world, the Moscow McDonald's – explain that a business needs to stay true to its core competency. In this case, Google has become extremely good at providing search solutions. However, they have not proven themselves to be a trusted resource for statistics, hosting information, or a type of ISP (in regards to the free Wi-Fi service being tested).
Could it be Pride, the IPO, or the Competition?
One would have to ask why Google has given us this onslaught of new products and services that seem to be half-completed. Many authors claim that Google is simply too proud to think that they could not release a product that is not superior to any other product currently on the market. To an extent, they would be correct. Up until recently Google has had the ability to launch products and services that are unlike any other. Google Maps is a great example as the AP reports on how Mapquest is now looking for new territories in light of their competition. Google maps was a product that matched Google's core competency very well.
Others may want to claim that Google simply does not know what to do with the money received from their IPO. After all, why would a company spend so much time buying up so much dark fiber and trying to enter a relatively foreign market than what they are used to. With the money Google now has from the highly successful Adsense revenue and their current stock prices, why shouldn't Google throw out several products to see which ones are successful and which ones ultimately fail?
The most believable reason for Google's massive launch of new products, however, is that they are scared of the competition. Google is still a young company, remember. Although their stock is projected to break the $500 mark within the next 12 months, Google is still a very young company. With their youth, there is also a touch of immaturity and also hopefully a sense of realism about how fast the face of the Internet actually changes. When Google first entered the search market, Hotbot was actually rated as one of the top search engines on the Internet.
Watch Out for that Fatal Failure
The frustrations with Google are mounting. Sure, advertisers and publishers in the Google Adwords and Adsense systems have been frustrated with Google for some time now, but with the release of several apparently incomplete and certainly relatively unimpressive new products, Google runs the risk of becoming just another Yahoo or MSN. This is not intended as a slight to Yahoo or MSN as both have proven themselves to be very impressive companies. But any person who cannot recognize that Google has a distinct advantage with over 80% of the search market share certainly does not understand even the most basic principles of business.
Google must beware of mounting too many failed product releases. Frustrations with Google can already be seen in the blogosphere. Just do a search in Google for the term “Google is Lame”, or check out this musing of a VC in NYC on the very topic. This specific post was picked up by several other blogs and news outlets that in some ways agreed with the author that Google's latest releases have been nothing less than unimpressive.
Google needs to be careful. Although their stock is still sky-high, and although they still have a significant portion of the search market, continuing to launch products as they are is a simple recipe for disaster. Yahoo would be chastised for releasing a product that has as many problems as Google base or Google analytics. Imagine what would happen if your business were to have a set of product releases that simply did not do what you promised it would do – what would your customer response be?
Listen to the Point Made by MSN
During the presentation of the MSN representative at PubCon in Las Vegas, the representative made a point that struck me in a unique way. What is a more relevant search result: a result set that includes 10 million results, or a result set that includes one search result that matches what I am looking for? The answer is simple: I would rather have one search result that matches what I am looking for.
In reality, of course, having a set of options is nice, but the point is as valid as ever. While Google is spending their time release the next Google Whatever, MSN, Yahoo, and the other search engines are refining their engines to provide a higher relevancy in their search results. If Google continues to release mediocre products which really do not have a practical use for the average user, they will certainly lose the search engine wars in the long-run.
Users are already attached to the services that Yahoo provides and that MSN provides. Google can tear them away if they release a product that offers a significant improvement over the status quo, just as they did with Gmail and Google Maps. If, however, they fail to offer those significant improvements, users will have no real motivation to adopt the Google technology over what they are already familiar with. Meanwhile, MSN and Yahoo will be spending their efforts on perfecting their search results to offer a better search result than Google.
Google's Future – A Realistic Version
Does this mean you should set out to re-optimize your website for MSN and Yahoo anticipating the ultimate demise of Google? Absolutely not. What I have gone over in this article is a brief pattern that has developed over just the past few months from Google. Although the pattern is disturbing and could indicate a slight or upcoming shift in the search engine wars, it should not be taken as anything serious.
Google is still has an incredibly strong portion of the search engine market, and they will continue to have an incredibly strong hold on the market. The release of a few products that do not match the expectations of users is not necessarily indicative of the direction Google is heading, although it is a reason for concern for Google.
If things continue down the path that they are currently heading, Google will, at worst, reduce itself to be indistinguishable from MSN and Yahoo, and we, the consumers and website owners, will be left with three relatively equal search engines and their related products.
The result is ultimately the same for those of us who own and operate a website or several websites. We must optimize our sites with our users in mind first, and the search engines in mind second. The search engine wars will continue to rage for some time, and the fall of Google, no matter how much damage they may do through the release of unimpressive products, is still off in the distant future.
Mark Daoust is the owner of [url=http://www.site-reference.com].
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Ra writes: is yahoo dying too
12:38:28 Wed May 20 2009 CDT
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